Current weak La Niña conditions are losing strength and transitioning toward ENSO-neutral state
Pacific sea surface temperatures and atmospheric indicators show clear weakening since mid-February 2026
| Region | Neutral Probability | La Niña Probability |
|---|---|---|
| Central Pacific | 60% | 30% |
| Eastern Pacific | 60% | 30% |
| Combined Assessment | 60% | 30% |
“WMO Members and partners will continue to closely monitor ENSO evolution. Climate prediction experts will periodically develop more detailed interpretations of regional climate variability effects.”
March-May represents crucial agricultural planning period with heightened uncertainty
Farmers face difficult crop selection decisions as ENSO patterns shift during spring predictability barrier
Unpredictable weather patterns during transition may disrupt crop planning, potentially causing food price spikes and threatening vulnerable populations in ENSO-sensitive regions.