ENSO Transition Forecast

La Niña Weakening Toward Neutral Conditions

WMO Global Producing Centres • February 2026
Transition Underway

Weak La Niña conditions are fading as tropical Pacific indicators shift toward ENSO-neutral state

Context

Sea surface temperatures and atmospheric patterns in mid-February 2026 show clear weakening of La Niña influence across the tropical Pacific basin

March-May 2026 Probabilities

60%
ENSO-Neutral
dominant
30%
La Niña Continues
declining
10%
El Niño Develops
emerging

Forecast Uncertainty

ConditionProbabilityConfidence
ENSO-Neutral60%Moderate
La Niña30%High
El Niño10%Low
Substantial uncertainty exists across model forecasts and ensemble members

Critical Consequences of ENSO Transitions

  • Extreme weather events increase mortality rates during transitions
  • Crop failures displace millions from agricultural regions
  • Food prices surge beyond reach of vulnerable populations
  • Farmers face crop planning chaos with uncertain conditions
  • Coastal communities prepare for intensified storm systems
  • Agricultural systems destabilize across global food networks
Forecast Limitations

ENSO is not the only climate driver. Regional seasonal outlooks must assess multiple atmospheric and oceanic factors beyond El Niño/La Niña patterns.

Sources

  • WMO Global Producing Centres El Niño/La Niña Update, February 2026
  • WMO Climate into the 21st Century (2003)
  • https://wmo.int/publication-series/el-ninola-nina-updates